Oil and Polymers... a love story or not?
Monday 20th April 2020 we experienced something which never ever happened before: Oil price dropping into negative territory. This means that major oil producers have to pay buyers to take oil off their hands from Western Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil's May futures contracts, meaning that anyone holding a contract is obliged to take delivery of the physical product. With little storage available, traders scrambled to offload their contracts, leading to the historic plunge.
This reflects the evaporation of demand in markets amid the global coronavirus shutdown, and a lack of storage space in the US for oil. The world-wide production of oil is approximately 30% higher than the current demand, despite OPEC and its allies agreed to the biggest-ever production cut. The international Energy Agency (IEA) warned for instability of this industry, which is still a key industry in the world economy.
How does the oil-market influence the polymer-markets? Is the next stage a "negative" price for Polyethylene (PE) of Polypropylene (PP)? Probably not. Monomer prices went down to a historic low level, but polymer producers are quickly bringing production in balance with demand.
Due to a significant lower demand of refined products (gasoline, diesel, kerosine, etc.) oil refineries are producing at a lower rate or even shut down (temporarily or due to maintanance). The output of feed-stock for steam-crackers is correspondingly less and the availability of monomers may soon be not enough to keep the polymer industry going. Of course ethylene and propylene prices will influence strongly the mass-polymers prices such as PE and PP prices, but at the end supply and demand will be more important. Engineering polymers are traditionally not strongly influenced by raw-material prices. The more sophisticated materials even less. Supply and demand may for the polymer industry as a whole be the main factor for price development. A healthy polymer industry can only continue to produce if margins are at an acceptable level. The polymer demand in some branches is higher than normal, in others less. The next period the polymer industry will face a volatile market situation with many uncertainties and unexpected problems. Important is anyway to have a close communication between material supplier and polymer pocessor in order to avoid any hick-ups in the availability.
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